‘If Trump’s summit fails, war is unavoidable’, warns expert

Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at US-based foreign policy think tank New America, cautioned that even if the talks were successful, it could take a decade for the rogue state to get ride of rid of its weapons – assuming they are actually serious about doing so.

Ms DiMaggio suggested the North Korea regards the progress made in their nuclear programme in recent years as a significant bargaining chip.

Speaking at a press conference organised by North Korea watchdog 38 North, she said: “I think the fact is Kim Jong Un could say, at the end of 2017, what he said he would say at the beginning of 2017: ‘By the end of this year we will complete our nuclear force.’

“Now, we can debate whether or not he really has that capability. 

“Does he have a reentry capability to actually hit us with a nuclear weapon? 

“But I think that’s beside the point. I think they feel a great sense of confidence that they’ve made these accomplishments. 

“Also, they understand that it has greatly enhanced their negotiating position. So, I think they have a keen understanding that that negotiating position is as strong now as it’s going to be. 

“So, I think that is why they’re entering into talks now.

“So…I think they also understand that even when they say ‘denuclearisation’ they mean a process to get there. 

“And what we need to find out is, if they’re serious, how long are they talking about? A year? Five years? Ten years? I think that’s what we need to be pursuing.

Ms DiMaggio added: “For some of us who have long supported diplomatic talks to address the North Korean crisis, the news of a summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, I think brought about what I would call a “be careful what you wish for” moment.

“Are these two leaders, both of whom I would call untested leaders on the global stage…ready for such high stakes diplomacy?

She said one of her biggest concerns was if the summit came to be seen as a failure.

Ms DiMaggio said: “I think that would likely damage the prospects for future diplomacy, possibly in an irreversible way, and it could make unviable – what I would call unviable – military options suddenly appear unavoidable. 

“So I think that’s the worst case scenario and we really need to work to avoid that.

“So, despite all these concerns, I must give President Trump credit in taking a bold step towards diplomacy. 

“I think it’s a welcome turn of events, given the daily cycle of escalation and hot rhetoric we have been witnessing between Washington and Pyongyang over the past months, including a lot of talk about war, military options.

“So, if the summit comes to fruition, I think it could result in a historic breakthrough. And my own point of view is we must, now, do everything we can to ensure it’s a success.”