While conflict and economic reasons are often the biggest factors for people moving within countries, climate change will soon have its own part to play.
By 2050, 140 million people could be forced to migrate internally as the effects of global warming exacerbate problems like water scarcity, crop failure, rising sea levels and storm surges, according to a new report.
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World Bank report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration analyses the effects climate change will have on three regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, a group that represents 55 percent of the world’s developing population.
It warns that a lack of action on climate could intensify the global refugee crisis in the future, and that governments need to plan for communities and populations that will inevitably have to move from their homes because of climate-induced problems.
“Without the right planning and support, people migrating from rural areas into cities could be facing new and even more dangerous risks,” the report’s team lead Kanta Kumari Rigaud said in a statement.
“We could see increased tensions and conflict as a result of pressure on scarce resources. But that doesn’t have to be the future. While internal climate migration is becoming a reality, it won’t be a crisis if we plan for it now.”
The hotspots for climate migration
The report identifies “hotspots” where people are likely going to move or settle within Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Mexico because of climate change.
In Ethiopia, people are predicted to move away from the northern highlands due to declines in crop productivity, as well as from its capital Addis Ababa, due to rapidly diminishing water availability. It’s likely migrants will move to the southern highlands or secondary cities in the east.
People are projected to move away from Bangladesh’s northeast and around Dhaka, with heat stress and flooding already a problem for the latter.
The most urbanised country of the three, Mexico, is predicted to have people moving from low-lying, flood-threatened areas on the southern coast, as well as from the arid north, to the country’s central plateau, where Mexico City and other urban areas lie.
The report comes following studies which have tied Syria’s civil war to climate change — a preview of things to come with regards to climate change-induced immigration.
