Cheltenham Festival 2018: Stayers’ Hurdle and Ryanair Chase day – live!

Here’s the week’s against-all-odds story, about Sam Spinner, who became hot favourite for this when he bolted up in a Grade One at Ascot two days before Christmas. He’s trained by Jedd O’Keeffe, who seemed at death’s door two or three years ago and had to be persuaded to keep training by his owners, and ridden by Joe Colliver, who went to jail for lying to the police after crashing his car while drunk. Sam Spinner is good enough but we’ve already seen this week how hard it is for inexperienced connections to get everything right for a Festival race, while taking on Mullins and Henderson, who have been winning such races for years.

Mullins has Bacardys (10-1), who comes here as a failed chaser but whose hurdles form last year entitles him to go close. Henderson has L’Ami Serge, who has seemed to lack resolution and may need to be fooled into sticking his head in front on the line by Daryl Jacob. Yanworth, who started favourite for the Champion Hurdle last year, put his name in the frame for this by winning over three miles at Aintree last spring. This will be even more of a stamina test, however. Supasundae won a handicap hurdle at the last Festival and followed up in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month. He has not so far been a strong finisher over three miles and his stamina must be in doubt.

One of today’s feature races, the Ryanair Chase (2.50, 2m 4f) has never actually been won by the Ryanair chief executive, Michael O’Leary, which is starting to become A Thing – although O’Leary has won today’s first two races. He would clearly like to win it and has chucked quite a few of his talented steeplechasers at it without hitting the bullseye, including some who might have been better off in the Gold Cup. This time, he fields Sub Lieutenant, a game second last year but winless in 11 Grade Ones, and Balko Des Flos, a Galway Plate winner who was second in the Christmas Chase. Neither looks quite good enough but Balko may very well have more to offer.

Still, Un De Sceaux (8-11) is the most likely winner, having put up a formidable show to win this race last year. He’s unbeaten in two this season and is trained by that Mullins chap you may have heard of. Also here, probably for the last time at the Festival, is Cue Card, who won this race five years ago, the last time he lined up in it. The Champion Bumper winner of 2010, he’s become immensely popular for his durability and the roof would come off if he managed to win this. At the age of 12, it doesn’t seem likely and he hasn’t won for over a year but he put up a game effort at Ascot last time.

Betting: Un de Sceaux 8-11, Cue Card 5-1, Frodon 8-1, Balko Des Flos 11-1, Cloudy Dream 12-1, Sub Lieutenant 16-1.

4.10 Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase

A handicap which has been a reliable source of shocks, if that’s not an oxymoron, with winners in the past decade at 66-1, 50-1, 33-1 and 33-1. David Pipe and Venetia Williams have won it five times between them in that decade and both have fancied runners this time in King’s Socks and Willie Boy, though both trainers have also been operating well below their usual strike-rates in recent weeks. Gordon Elliott, who has found success easier to come by, runs The Storyteller, who was favourite for last year’s Martin Pipe until pulling a muscle the week before. He could be nicely weighted if he can brush up his jumping a bit. The same owner has Guitar Pete (14-1), a course winner in December, trained by Nicky Richards. Drumcliff couldn’t go with Saint Calvados in a quality contest at Warwick last time but had previously won two handicaps and looks a contender again.

4.50 Mares’ Novice Hurdle

A race seemingly invented to give Willie Mullins another winner at each Festival. It has certainly performed that function for its first two years and looks set to do so again, as Laurina (4-6) is likely to start at odds-on. She has hacked up on both starts since joining Mullins from France, including in a Grade Three last time. Maria’s Benefit is just about a match for Laurina on ratings, but she has taken six runs since September to get to that point and the suspicion must be that Laurina has rather more scope for building on what she has so far shown. If there was to be a danger to Laurina, it might come instead from her stablemate, Pietralunga, who has had just one run since leaving France. She did not impress that day at Clonmel but at least she won and there is no shortage of possible excuses. Mullins may very well have improved her since then.

5.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Here’s an amateur riders’ race which, for some reason, has worked out as a fair trial for the next year’s Grand National, thanks to winners like Ballabriggs, Sunnyhillboy and Cause Of Causes. Squouateur looks like starting favourite, though it’s hard to see what he’s done to earn that, other than starting favourite for Festival races for the past two years. He was still in the argument when unseating late in this race a year ago and the excellent Jamie Codd rides again. Mall Dini was fifth that day and gets to run from the same mark, with Patrick Mullins replacing Katie Walsh. Representing Pat ‘Presenting Percy’ Kelly, he won the Pertemps two years ago. Ms Walsh is this time on Sugar Baron, who can finish to great effect, as when second here in November. Band Of Blood has won his last two and probably has more to offer, coming from the yard of Dr Newland. West Wizard (50-1) is a bit of a bampot but talented and could get involved at a big price.

Here’s the week’s against-all-odds story, about Sam Spinner, who became hot favourite for this when he bolted up in a Grade One at Ascot two days before Christmas. He’s trained by Jedd O’Keeffe, who seemed at death’s door two or three years ago and had to be persuaded to keep training by his owners, and ridden by Joe Colliver, who went to jail for lying to the police after crashing his car while drunk. Sam Spinner is good enough but we’ve already seen this week how hard it is for inexperienced connections to get everything right for a Festival race, while taking on Mullins and Henderson, who have been winning such races for years.

Mullins has Bacardys (10-1), who comes here as a failed chaser but whose hurdles form last year entitles him to go close. Henderson has L’Ami Serge, who has seemed to lack resolution and may need to be fooled into sticking his head in front on the line by Daryl Jacob. Yanworth, who started favourite for the Champion Hurdle last year, put his name in the frame for this by winning over three miles at Aintree last spring. This will be even more of a stamina test, however. Supasundae won a handicap hurdle at the last Festival and followed up in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month. He has not so far been a strong finisher over three miles and his stamina must be in doubt.

One of today’s feature races, the Ryanair Chase (2.50, 2m 4f) has never actually been won by the Ryanair chief executive, Michael O’Leary, which is starting to become A Thing. O’Leary would clearly like to win it and has chucked quite a few of his talented steeplechasers at it without hitting the bullseye, including some who might have been better off in the Gold Cup. This time, he fields Sub Lieutenant, a game second last year but winless in 11 Grade Ones, and Balko Des Flos, a Galway Plate winner who was second in the Christmas Chase. Neither looks quite good enough but Balko may very well have more to offer.

Still, Un De Sceaux (8-13) is the most likely winner, having put up a formidable show to win this race last year. He’s unbeaten in two this season and is trained by that Mullins chap you may have heard of. Also here, probably for the last time at the Festival, is Cue Card, who won this race five years ago, the last time he lined up in it. The Champion Bumper winner of 2010, he’s become immensely popular for his durability and the roof would come off if he managed to win this. At the age of 12, it doesn’t seem likely and he hasn’t won for over a year but he put up a game effort at Ascot last time.

Talking tactics

So far at Cheltenham, it has been a tough week for front-runners, which makes sense in view of the testing conditions. It’s hard to make all the running, in any case, when the level of competition is so very high but it has been possible at past Festivals; like when Annie Power and Faugheen won their Champion Hurdles, for example.

No horse this week has won after setting the early pace and some have been held up a long way off the lead, like Footpad and Presenting Percy. Those who may have suffered from being on the front end include Getabird, Faugheen and Apple’s Jade.
We’ll see if this seeming bias holds up today, when Sam Spinner lines up as favourite in the Stayers’ Hurdle. He’s made all to win his last two starts.

Top trainers – how they stand

Gordon Elliott bounced back to life after a brutal opening day but Willie Mullins still holds the upper hand. And let’s remember that Mullins, having been blanked through the first two days last year, then had a four-timer on the Thursday; this time, he’s clearly in the form to do something similar. That would stretch Ireland’s lead over Britain even further – it’s Ireland 9-5 Britain after six Irish successes on Tuesday.

Mullins is now just one win behind Nicky Henderson in career Festival successes. Today could be the day when he becomes the winningmost trainer in Festival history. Meanwhile, some big names are still waiting to get a look-in. Paul Nicholls was beaten just a neck in the Coral Cup while Alan King came up short by half a length in the Mares’ Hurdle. Colin Tizzard is 0/10 and hasn’t had a horse finish within six lengths of a winner yet.

Willie Mullins 5 wins; Gordon Elliott 3; Nicky Henderson 2; Tom George, Mick Channon, Nick Williams, Pat Kelly one win each

Betting: Willie Mullins 1-12, Gordon Elliott 7-1, Nicky Henderson 66-1

The bookies have had a bruising time of it over the first two days of the meeting, and one punter who is sure to finish the week in front is golfer (and keen racehorse owner) Lee Westwood, who managed to land a share of the Tote’s Jackpot bet by finding the first six winners on the opening day, and then backed Mr Whitaker, the last winner on the card, for good measure.

In all, Westwood has found 11 of the first 14 winners at this year’s Festival, and he could yet round things off by getting off the mark as an owner too. He is the driving force behind the syndicate which owns Augusta Kate, a 33-1 chance for today’s Stayers’ Hurdle, and also has an interest in Ballyalton, who lines up for the Plate at 4.10.

Augusta Kate’s owners also include Alan Shearer and the TV presenters Ant and Dec, who were persuaded to chip in by Westwood and leading owner Graham Wylie while they were all watching Westwood play in the Masters a few years ago. “Because of where the idea started, we decided to name her after Augusta,” Wylie once recalled, “and we just felt Kate was a nice name for a filly. We’re also called the Masters Syndicate and she runs in green colours because of the green jacket the winner of the Masters gets.”

Westwood has already posted his picks for today on Twitter, and his fellow owners may be disappointed to hear that he does not seem to fancy either Augusta Kate or Ballyalton. He picked Sam Spinner and Yanworth in the Stayers’, and King’s Socks and Tully East – who has since been ruled out – in the Plate.

The jiggling of jockeys in the Willie Mullins team following Ruby Walsh’s injury on Wednesday has now been finalised.

As expected, Paul Townend has been confirmed aboard Un De Sceaux (Ryanair Chase) and Laurina (Mares’ Novice Hurdle), while the trainer’s son, Patrick, will replace Walsh aboard Bacardys in the Stayers’ Hurdle with Townend staying put on Penhill, the winner of the Albert Bartlett here 12 months ago.

In the opening JLT Novice Chase, Townend will switch to ride Invitation Only with Mullins taking over on Kemboy, while the ride on Salsaretta in the Mares’ Hurdle goes to Robbie Power.

1.30 JLT Novice Chase Terrefort 9-2
2.10 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Forza Milan 14-1
2.50 Ryanair Chase Un De Sceaux 5-4
3.30 Stayers’ Hurdle Bacardys 10-1
4.10 Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase Guitar Pete 22-1
4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle Laurina 4-6
5.30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase West Wizard 100-1

Bacardys and Un De Sceaux would be a double in the feature races for Willie Mullins and I’ve got him down for a treble, thanks to Laurina. All three would have been ridden by Ruby Walsh had he remained healthy, so I fear today’s results are going to rub some metaphorical salt in his all-too-real wounds.

Nicky Henderson may land the opener with Terrefort and yet still lose his crown as winningmost Festival trainer to Mullins, who starts the day just one win behind the Lambourn man. Forza Milan would be a needed pick-me-up for the underperfoming yard of Jonjo O’Neill, while Guitar Pete, from the Nicky Richards yard, could provide the north with its first Festival success for four years.

As for West Wizard, all I can say is I really do think he has a winning chance and is a fair each-way play. But perhaps I’m short of sleep.

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Rain returned to Cheltenham overnight after two dry days of racing on the Old Course, but since the action moves to fresh ground on the New Course for the second half of the Festival, the official going this afternoon is unchanged.

“The rain that we’ve had overnight is hopefully petering out and we’re looking forward to a dry afternoon and a spectacular afternoon’s racing,” Simon Claisse, the clerk of the course, said in his morning briefing.

“Nine millimetres of rainfall overnight has left the New Course soft, heavy in places, [but] most most of this track that we’re running on today, chase and hurdle, we’ve not set foot on for 12 months, it’s in pristine condition and will be perfect for the afternoon’s sport.”

Claisse’s optimism seems justified – it is now dry at the track and brightening up ahead of an afternoon that is often seen as the weakest of the four days in terms of quality but has as much potential for high drama as any other.

Cue Card would certainly receive one of the great Festival welcomes if he could win the Ryanair Chase, five years after his first success in the race and eight years after winning the Bumper at 40-1. He goes up against Un De Sceaux, last year’s winner, in what will be only a six-strong field in the predictable absence of Douvan, a faller at the fourth-last in Wednesday’s Champion Chase.

The favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle would also be a popular winner, as Sam Spinner is one of very few market leaders at this year’s Festival who hails from outside the “Big Three” stables of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson. Jedd O’Keeffe’s hurdler started the season in a handicap off a mark of 136, but his win in the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December is the best bit of recent form in the field. He will surely go close for jockey Joe Colliver, who has a well-known back story of his own, having served three months of a 10-month sentence for drink-driving and perverting the course of justice less than two years ago.

There is still no official confirmation of the riding plans for the Willie Mullins team in the absence of Ruby Walsh, though Paul Townend will be expected to get the nod for his two odds-on favourites, Un De Sceaux and Laurina, in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle. Mullins is now just one winner behind Henderson in the all-time list at the Festival, and could be the outright leader by this evening – though it would be all the more memorable for all concerned if Mullins could overtake Henderson with a first success in tomorrow’s Gold Cup.