Latest aerial photos show the extent of Beijing’s construction in the disputed Spratly Islands, with its previously minor outposts now transformed into fortresses featuring air and naval bases.
Diplomatic relations between the five nations which have laid claim to the islands are already extremely strained, and the recent construction of bunkers on some of the atols point to China preparing to “protection against air or missile strikes”, raising the prospect of a conflict which could spark World War 3.
The Spratlys themselves offer very little in the way of natural resources, but the waters surrounding them are prime fishing grounds and are thought to contain significant oil and gas reserves.
They are also extremely important from a strategic perspective because of their location near major shipping lanes.
The islands and surrounding reefs have been the subject of a bitter and long-running territorial dispute, with China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines all laying claim to parts of the archipelago.
According to the AMTI, China now has seven outposts in the Spratlys but is focussing its efforts fortifying a trio of bases dubbed the ‘Big Three’.
The largest and most advanced at Fiery Cross Reef has been completely transformed from three reefs in 2009 to a major military installation today.
Fiery Cross is now home to a military garrison, an airfield and a naval base after years of dredging piled up tons of sand to create an artificial island.
New structures with retractable roofs have also been spotted in latest images, with analysts predicting they will be used to house missile launchers.
Similarly, the Chinese outpost at Subi Reef was built up from an untouched atol in 2012 to a modern stronghold equipped with an airstrip, hangars and anti-aircraft defences.
Latest pictures show recently installed missile defence bunkers and the construction of a high-tech radar system.
The AMTI says: “Subi Reef also sports what appears to be a high-frequency ‘elephant cage’ radar array on its southern end. This is unique among the Big Three.
“As with radar facilities at the other reefs, this high-frequency radar is close to a point defence structure, providing protection against air or missile strikes.”
The third of the ‘Big Three’ bases at Mischief Reef has also been completely transformed since 2015.
The atol now features a “very large antennae array” which is being installed on the southern end of the reef, which AMTI says is likely used to monitor activity in the area.
The AMTI says: “That ability should be of particular concern to Manila, given Mischief’s proximity to Palawan, Reed Bank, and Second Thomas Shoal.”
China has also been asserting its dominance in the Indian Ocean, sailing 11 of its warships through the East Indian Ocean last month in a massive show of force.
The Asian superpower is also wrestling with India for more influence over the Maldives, which recently signed up to Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar infrastructure programme to the frustration of New Delhi.