March Madness 2018: our writers predict the winners, sleepers and upsets

South regional

Favorite

Virginia. The Cavaliers have been the nation’s best team for the last two months and play ferocious defense. But as good as they’ve been – and they have been very good – history is not on their side. Despite several outstanding regular seasons, they never seem to have enough to make the Final Four. Will this one be different? LC

Virginia. The Cavaliers are the No1 overall seed in the tournament for good reason. They’re 31-2, just won the ACC regular season and tournament, and boast the nation’s best defense – allowing just 53.4 points per game. Their issue in tournaments past has been scoring enough to beat highly talented teams. Last year’s 39-point output in a second-round loss to Florida remains an all-time horror show of offensive basketball. DG

Virginia. It’s the Cavaliers on paper, but questions abound. With an average of 59.2 possessions per game, they were the slowest of the 351 teams in Division I this year, albeit with the best defensive efficiency in the country. Will that extreme approach hold up in a regional stacked with in-form contenders like No2 Cincinnati, No4 Arizona and No5 Kentucky? BAG

Dark horse

Strange to call Kentucky a dark horse and yet John Calipari’s latest group of one-and-dones spent much of the season trying to catch up to the college game. This has led many to believe they are not a true Kentucky team. But the Wildcats have won seven of their last eight, including the SEC tournament title. This could well be another Final Four Kentucky team. LC

Is it possible to call the NBA factory that is Kentucky a dark horse? Well, they do have 10 losses on the season, a grand total of two junior and zero seniors on the roster and were awarded with just a 5-seed by the tournament committee despite winning the SEC tournament. John Calipari has his latest young team peaking at the right time. DG

Loyola-Chicago, the No11 seed, fits the profile of the unheralded mid-major that inevitably crashes the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are tight on defense (24th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency), lights out from the floor (eighth nationally in effective field-goal percentage) and have a high-profile scalp under their belts (winning on Florida’s home court in December). Miami and Tennessee, beware. BAG

First-round game to watch

Arizona v Buffalo. The Pac-12 champions could be walking into trouble when they meet the Bulls on Thursday night. Though the Wildcats have done a great job of ignoring the controversy surrounding coach Sean Miller and potential payments, those questions will come again at the NCAAs. Buffalo is a tenacious, experienced team that will give Arizona trouble. LC

Kentucky v Davidson. Davidson, the program that produced Steph Curry, has the potential to produce some bracket mayhem. Fresh off of leading his team to a surprising win in the Atlantic 10 tournament, senior forward Peyton Aldridge will see what he can do against the freshmen and sophomores of the Wildcats. DG

Kentucky v Davidson. Two of the nation’s hottest teams face off in Boise. The Wildcats may be peaking at the right time, but they’ll have their hands full with the red-hot Atlantic 10 champions. BG

One bold prediction

Like many of the country’s top teams, Cincinnati has been very good defensively. But can they score? They earned a second seed with their relentless defense and yet their offensive struggles could cost them in the second round against either Nevada or Texas. LC

No1 overall seed Virginia doesn’t get past the Sweet 16. Not enough offense will doom the Cavaliers again, as they are overwhelmed by the superior athleticism of Kentucky or DeAndre Ayton and Arizona in the Sweet 16. DG

Loyola-Chicago becomes the highest seed to make this year’s Sweet 16 as former Iowa State point guard Clayton Custer (13.4 points, 4.3 assists, 1.5 steals), the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year, emerges as this year’s Ali Faroukmanesh.

Sweet 16 picks

Virginia, Kentucky, Miami, Nevada. LC

Virginia, Cincinnati, Arizona, Miami. DG

Virginia, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago. BG

Final Four pick

Kentucky. LC

Arizona. DG

Virginia. BG

West regional

Favorite

North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been two straight national championship games and until they lose they have to be the favorites to go again. They can shoot and come into the tournament on a tremendous roll. Don’t be fooled by the No2 seeding, this is the biggest name in the quarter. LC

North Carolina. The Xavier Musketeers are the No1 seed in the regional, but UNC’s tournament pedigree is hard to discount. Six Final Four appearances since 2000 alone, including winning last year’s national title, compared to zero Final Four appearances for Xavier in its history. The experience of senior guard Joel Berry II will be huge in helping the Tar Heels get through tight, pressure-packed tournament games. DG

North Carolina. No disrespect to Xavier, who earned the first No1 seed in school history by hanging in or around the top 10 from December on. But the talent-stacked defending national champions are a No2 seed in name only. BG

Dark horse

Missouri is a tricky team to judge. The Tigers have the nation’s top recruit, Michael Porter Jr, back after he missed the whole regular season following back surgery. Though Porter seems a step slow, he’s a great scorer and Missouri – which plays excellent – can bury teams from outside. LC

Missouri and it’s all thanks to Michael Porter Jr. The freshman was supposed to be one of the top players in the nation this year, but was injured in the first half of the Tigers’ season opener in early November. His first game back was last Thursday. If Porter is close to 100%, the Tigers are a dangerous 8-seed. DG

Providence. The Friars knocked off Xavier in the Big East tournament semis and pushed Villanova to the limit in Saturday’s final. No one at the Garden last week would be surprised if Ed Cooley’s squad played into the second weekend. BG

First-round game to watch

Houston v San Diego State. Sixth-seeded Houston has made some good teams look very bad this season. Likewise, No11 San Diego State has played some excellent defense lately. This Thursday night game could be one of the best of the first round. LC

Ohio State v South Dakota State. Some more possible 5-12 upset magic. The 12-seed Jackrabbits fittingly play an up tempo game, averaging 84.9 points per game – sixth-best in the country – including 23.8 points per game from junior forward Mike Daum, while the Buckeyes have scored more than 80 points just once in their past 14 games. DG

Ohio State v South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits’ Mike Daum is more than the tournament’s best nickname (‘The Dauminator’): he may be the best NBA prospect you’ve never heard of. Against a fifth-seeded Buckeyes side that looked vulnerable down the stretch, an upset could be in the stars.

One bold prediction

Gonzaga will fall early. Last year the Zags finally made a Final Four, going all the way to the title game. The same will not happen this year. Gonzaga has had their share of early exits over the years and this will be another one. LC

Gonzaga makes the Final Four again. After finally making it to the national title game last year, the Bulldogs went 30-4 this season and are on a 14-game winning streak. So they were rewarded with … a No4 seed? Watch out for a balanced Bulldogs side. DG

Xavier becomes the first No1 seed to fall. Perhaps not so bold given the lack of collective confidence around the Musketeers nationally, but an all-Catholic school clash with Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 is where their dream season will end. BG

Sweet 16 picks

North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio State, Missouri. LC

Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan, Gonzaga. DG

Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan, Gonzaga. BG

Final Four pick

North Carolina. LC

Gonzaga. DG

North Carolina. BG

East regional

Favorite

Villanova. The national champion from two years ago is as talented as any team in the country and plays together beautifully. The Wildcats’ coach, Jay Wright, used to be mocked as a poor NCAA tournament coach. No longer. Villanova is for real. LC

Villanova. After stumbling through the month of February and losing three of its four games on the season, the No1 seed Wildcats seem to have found their footing again, winning five games in a row and by an average of 15 points per game. Head coach Jay Wright will surely remind his players of last year’s disappointing second-round exit for extra motivation. DG

Villanova. Jay Wright has built something special on the Main Line. The Wildcats’ fourth straight 30-win season pressed forward on Saturday with a third Big East tournament championship in four years. And the committee has done them a solid by placing them in what appears to be the easiest regional after last year’s stinger of a draw. BG

Dark horse

West Virginia. Late in the Big 12 season, West Virginia stumbled and slipped to a five seed, but this is a dangerous team. The Mountaineers have an aggressive backcourt with experienced players who love to grind through games. Nobody likes to face teams coached by Bob Huggins in the postseason, especially the way they play defense. This one is no exception. LC

Marshall. Jon Elmore is the kind of player who can carry teams on Cinderella runs if he gets hot. The junior guard averages nearly eight three-point attempts per game and hit on 7-of-13 in the Conference USA title game. More of that in the tournament could see the 13-seed Thundering Herd make noise. DG

Florida. Last year’s Gators outplayed their seeding line by making the Elite Eight as a No4 before they were clipped by seventh-seeded South Carolina. The four-guard offense behind this season’s team (Jalen Hudson, Egor Koulechov, KeVaughn Allen and Chris Chiozza) should be enough to score upsets of No3 Texas Tech, No2 Purdue and maybe even the top-seeded Wildcats. BG

First-round game to watch

Florida has a six seed and plays the winner of a play-in game on Thursday but their draw is a challenging one. The Gators are a talented but live and die by the three-pointer. They will either face a resilient, senior-dominated St Bonaventure or a UCLA team that is good enough to beat anyone when shooting well. LC

West Virginia v Murray State. If you’re looking for the customary 12-v-5-seed ‘upset’, here’s the best option. The Racers are on a 13-game winning streak while the 5-seed Mountaineers have dropped half of their last 18 games after starting the season 15-1. DG

Wichita State v Marshall. The Shockers, typically on the friendly end of March Madness upsets, will find themselves in the Goliath role against the fast-paced Thundering Herd, who average 74.8 possessions per game, the sixth fastest pace in Division I.

One bold prediction

Purdue dominated the Big 10 for much of the season but this is not necessarily an NCAA tournament team. Don’t be surprised to see Arkansas knock them off in the second round. LC

UCLA loses the 11-seed play-in game to St Bonaventure, causing LaVar Ball to rip the Bruins into the nearest microphone. OK, so maybe that’s not a wildly bold prediction. DG

At least one No13 seed has beaten a No4 in 23 of the last 33 tournaments. Marshall’s shock win over Wichita State in a track meet will make it 24 of 34. BG

Sweet 16 picks

Villanova, West Virginia, Arkansas, St Bonaventure. LC

Villanova, Purdue, Texas Tech, Murray State. DG

Villanova, Purdue, Texas Tech, West Virginia. BG

Final Four pick

Villanova. LC

Villanova. DG

Villanova. BG

Midwest regional

Favorite

Duke. No matter where Duke is seeded they are always the team to beat in any bracket. The Blue Devils are a second seed this year and it doesn’t matter. Until Duke loses, the region will be considered theirs to lose. Star freshman Marvin Bagley III (who should be in high school still) has been tremendous as has Grayson Allen. LC

Michigan State. The Spartans went 29-4 in a Power Five conference, have Tom Izzo and all that tournament pedigree, and yet were given just a 4-seed. One of the Spartans’ losses this year came by seven points to Duke back in early November. Look for them to flip the outcome against the 2-seed Blue Devils in the Sweet 16. DG

Duke. If all teams are roaring at full cylinders, I’ll take the Blue Devils over any team in the quarter. The likely Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State is dripping with game of the tournament potential.

Dark horse

Rhode Island. Dan Hurley is undoubtedly coaching his final games at Kinston. He will be moving somewhere big very soon. His teams are aggressive, play great defense and make opponents do silly things when passing the ball. But can the Rams beat Duke? Rhode Island got a terrible second game draw. LC

College of Charleston. Head coach Earl Grant is being mentioned as a candidate for open Power Five jobs for good reason. In his four seasons at Charleston, he has gone from 9-24 to 17-14 to 25-10 and an NIT birth to 26-7 and a 13-seed in this year’s NCAA tournament. The Cougars open against a struggling Auburn team that has lost four of six. DG

Rhode Island. Rhody has a chance to make a true splash in the Big Dance for the first time since the years of Tyson Wheeler, Cuttino Mobley and Antonio Reynolds-Dean. If they can spring an second-round upset of mighty Duke, who haven’t proven completely unassailable in the early rounds, the sky is the limit.

First-round game to watch

Clemson v New Mexico State. Clemson can shoot and that makes the Tigers, seeded fifth, dangerous. But the 12th seed New Mexico State has a tremendous shooter of their own in Zach Lofton and the Aggies are an excellent defensive team. This game screams upset. LC

Oklahoma v Rhode Island. The 10-seed Sooners are the team most say doesn’t deserve to be in the field. On Thursday afternoon, freshman scorer Trae Young (27.7 points per game) and friends will get to make their case that they belong. DG

Oklahoma v Rhode Island. Sooners freshman Trae Young became the first ever player to lead the nation in scoring and assists but he’s been written off after an extended slump dating back to January. Look for him to bounce back in a big way over the next two games, giving Rhode Island (and possibly Duke) all it can handle during the first weekend. BG

One bold prediction

Kansas with their guard-heavy lineup will be knocked out by the Sweet 16, perhaps by North Carolina State, an intriguing nine seed and possible second game opponent. The Jayhawks are good and scrambled at season’s end to win their Big 12 title but they are vulnerable to tough inside teams. LC

Duke senior Grayson Allen makes is through the entire tournament without trying to hurt anyone. He’ll need to behave for just three games for this prediction to come true, as Duke will fall in the Sweet 16 to Michigan State. DG

I can’t quite bring myself to pick North Carolina State over Kansas in the second round, but I’m sure the Wolfpack, who beat Duke and Arizona this season, will give the Jayhawks everything they can handle with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. BG

Sweet 16 picks

Duke, Michigan State, Auburn, NC State. LC

Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, College of Charleston. DG

Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Auburn. BG

Final Four pick

Duke. LC

Michigan State. DG

Duke. BG

Who will win it all?

Villanova over North Carolina. Why not a repeat of 2016? However, this time the Wildcats won’t wait to win on a buzzer-beater. Instead, they will coast through the second half and establish a new dynasty on the Main Line and send Wright to the Hall of Fame. LC

Villanova over Gonzaga. Jay Wright has quietly strung together a five-year run at Villanova that any program in history would happily take: 159 wins, four Big East regular season titles, three conference tournament titles and a national title. Cutting down the nets again this year will give his program the national respects it deserves. DG

Villanova over Virginia. Make it two national titles in three years for Wright, whose tiny Catholic school powerhouse on Philadelphia’s Main Line will make the jump to dynasty status after cutting down the nets in San Antonio. BG