End for Merkel? German chancellor could be finished even if she wins Sunday vote

The Social Democrats Party (SPD) is set to announce the results of its postal vote to decide whether or not to form a coalition under Mrs Merkel’s control.

But just as Mrs Merkel finds out whether she will lead a new government, the entire German political system is undergoing a shake-up because of the growing importance of the Alternative for Germany party (AfD).

The change means even if Mrs Merkel wins on Sunday, all politicians, including the Chancellor will face increased competition from the powerful AfD.

SPD party officials predict that 55 percent or more of SPD members will back a renewed coalition with the conservatives, as a ‘no’ vote would spell disaster for the party, Germany and Europe.

Thomas Oppermann, vice president of the Bundestag lower house of parliament, told Die Welt newspaper that he expected a “clear approval” rate of 55 percent in an SPD postal ballot that ended on Friday, with results to be unveiled on Sunday.

The SPD’s 464,000 members must vote on whether to endorse a decision by party leaders to continue the “grand coalition” with Mrs Merkel’s conservative bloc that has ruled since 2013 despite the SPD’s significant losses in the September national election.

Mr Oppermann said: “Rejection of another tie-up with conservatives “would be a disaster for Germany, the SPD and above all, for Europe.”

But, while, the SPD controls Mrs Merkel’s fate, it cannot stop in-fighting in its own ranks.

The SPD has slipped to third place in the polls for the first time since the Second World War behind the right wing AfD.

And the SPD is split down the middle with half of members wanting to see the party join the coalition and the other half who do not.

The SPD’s Jusos youth wing has been lobbying party members to vote against a re-run of the grand coalition, arguing they would do better to rebuild in opposition after the party suffered its worst results since 1993 in the September poll.

Mr Oppermann gave the Jusos credit for triggering a big debate in the party, and said he expected its leader, Kevin Kuehnert, to continue to make his mark.

He said the SPD needed to be more “self-confident, cheeky and ready for conflict” in the next coalition government.

“The biggest risk would be that we repeat what we did the last time,” he said, warning that a passive SPD stance could result in even worse election results after four years.

The SPD faced further challenges after former party leader, Martin Schulz, lost his party’s support last month and was forced to resign.

The party’s new leader, Andrea Nahles, said that she had no “Plan B” if the party did not vote to join the coalition.

Ralf Stegner, a senior SPD MP added: “We’re putting all our energy into steering the ship safely to shore and can’t concern ourselves with worrying about what happens if it sinks.”

The SPD initially planned to stay in opposition, after it suffered its worst losses in the election since 1932 – winning just 20.5 percent of the vote.

But the SPD agreed to negotiate with Mrs Merkel’s conservatives after talks with the pro-business Free Democrats (FD) and the environmentalist Greens on a three-way tie-up collapsed in November.

FDP leader Christian Lindner told the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain, that new elections would be the best solution if SPD members voted ‘no.’

He ruled out revisiting a three-way coalition, given the platforms of the parties involved.

Mr Lindner said the FDP would examine legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis if Mrs Merkel was forced to form a minority government.

He said: “Such a government would probably only last a few months anyway.”

Manfred Weber, deputy leader of the CSU Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, also backed new elections if SPD members rejected another ‘grand coalition,’ arguing that a minority government would impair Germany’s standing in Europe.

He said: ”Germany would remove itself as a serious factor in Europe and the world.”