Political tensions are set to rise between the North and South and its allies in as little as a few days according to experts predicting both sides will ramp up their military exercises in the wake of the South Korea Winter Olympics, which finishes on Sunday.
The North, led by Kim Jong-Un, is appears to have been a charm offensive in recent months, and sent a delegation to the Games as well as well-drilled cheerleaders.
Kim’s younger sister even made a three-day visit, during which the South is thought to have footed a bill of more than £150,000.
But Frank Jannuzi, President and CEO of the US-based Mansfield Foundation think-tank and a collaborator to the 38 North website, said the apparently cordial relations may not last too much longer.
He said: “The ‘Olympic Peace’ could easily be disrupted by the resumption of normal, annual winter training by both the ROK-USA Alliance forces and the Korean People’s Army of the North.
“Both sides routinely conduct large field exercises in the late winter/early spring period, and these are often accompanied by an escalation of political tension. Avoiding such an escalation of tension will require talks between the ROK/USA and their North Korean military counterparts.
“It is possible the two sides could agree either to ‘tone down’ any exercises, or failing that, to make them more transparent and predictable.
“Various ‘confidence and security building measures’ could be agreed, to include even having observers at each other’s exercises.
“All of this may be discussed in the coming weeks, initially by ROK and DPRK officials, but ultimately involving USA officials as well.”
The reasons for the recent thaw in relations was unclear, he acknowledged, adding: “After months of mostly rebuffing South Korea’s attempts at dialogue, the DPRK decided late last year to take up Seoul’s offer to engage, at first on the Olympics, but also with an eye towards reducing tension and re-establishing other elements of North-South dialogue, to include possibly family reunification visits and other humanitarian projects.
“The reason(s) for this shift in position are hard to pin down, but the pressure generated by international sanctions probably played some role.”
Mr Jannuzi downplayed suggestions that the North’s apparent efforts to improve dialogue with its neighbours could serve to drive a wedge between the South and its allies, saying: “The ROK-USA alliance is very solid, and the DPRK frankly doesn’t have the ability to pry us apart.
“That said, the DPRK has often attempted to exploit any divisions among the ROK, USA, and Japan, searching for a “better deal” from one ally than might be made available by another.
“This “shopping around” is normal in international affairs, and is not unique to US-DPRK-ROK interactions. It is one reason why trilateral US-ROK-Japan coordination is so important – to make sure the allies are aligned in their objectives and agreed on what the DPRK must demonstrate to receive any relief from international sanctions.
“In this, the fact that the UN Security Council has used its binding Chapter VII authority to impose a wide variety of sanctions on the DPRK makes coordination easier, as the terms are quite clear.”
North Korea will send a high-level delegation to the closing ceremony at the PyoengChang Olympic stadium – including Kim Yong Chol, the man the South Koreans blame for sinking a ship in 2010 which killed 46 sailors.
At the time Kim, who is now vice-chairman of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee, was chief of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, a top North Korean military intelligence agency, which South Korea blamed for the sinking of its naval vessel the Cheonan.