Scrutiny of the Italian parties’ election manifestos shows the cost of carrying out their pledges will dwarf current spending and make sovereign debt soar, making Italy’s financial crisis more “explosive” than ever.
A study by Italian newspaper la Repubblica shows Matteo Renzi’s Partito Democratico (PD), for example, is expected to fall back on its promise to reduce debt from 131 percent to 118 in 2022, highlighting that debt would increase to 134 percent should he carry out his manifesto pledges.
Antonella Guerrero, a journalist for the paper, said the reason the party cannot reach its 2022 target is because PD sounds unclear about the financial provision of its promises – after pledging expansionary fiscal policy measures for about £33.5billion (€38bn).
The insight into the challenge Italy’s parties face to halt the country’s declining economy comes as registered overseas voters started to send back their completed ballots yesterday ahead of the March 4 general election.
Writing on Twitter, Mr Guerrero said: “This study can explain why #Italy politics sounds so surreal sometimes. Everyone is promising everything without any credible financial cover.
“Moreover, party programs are kinda meaningless as no one will be likely able to govern alone. So subsequent coalitions will change all.”
Mr Guerrero warned that European Union leaders who are following the election closely will not be content with the promises being made.
Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI) made several unlikely promises according to the study, such as doubling all of Italy’s minimum pensions.
It insists on bringing down the debt to 112 percent in 2022, but the research suggests it could rise to 135 percent.
Mr Berlusconi is looking to sow together a right-wing coalition with Lega Nord leader Matteo Salvini – but he can’t become prime minister or even an MP as he was found guilty of fraud in 2013.
The European Court of Human Rights could overturn the sentence, but a final decision won’t be made until June this year.
Lega Nord, a populist right-wing party, pledges to bring fiscal pressure massively down to a 15 percent flat tax above all – at the same time as promising to reduce sovereign debt to 120 percent in 2022.
The study suggests Lega Nord will hike debt to 135 percent in the same year.
Lastly, Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S) – which wants to introduce another currency co-existing with the Euro – promised a massive basic income to every unemployed Italian.
The study shows while the M5S looks to reduce Italian debt to 91 percent within 2028, the party could actually see debt reach 134 percent in 2022.
According to recent polls, the M5S looks set to receive the most votes, but is unlikely to achieve a majority vote which can result in a political deadlock to either form a minority government, a coalition or head back to the polls.