Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), the pro-business Freedom Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green party have been holding coalition talks for almost two months.
Failure from the political leader to form a new government could launch a leadership challenge against Ms Merkel.
Germany is now in turmoil after coalition talks to form the next government collapsed after the FDP walked out of negotiations. Doing so buried the idea of a Jamaican coalition for the time being.
FDP leader Christian Lindner said: “The four discussion partners have no common vision for modernisation of the country or common basis of trust.
“It is better not to govern than to govern badly.”
1. Grand coalition
A black-red coalition is mathematically possible. Theoretically, the CDU, CSU and SPD could start negotiations. The Social Democrats are now reminded again and again – with reference to their political responsibility.
After the repeated defeat in the general election, the SPD leadership is not ready for a new edition of the “GroKo” (Grand Coalition).
Last Friday, SPD leader Andrea Nahles ruled out a grand coalition again. Party leader Martin Schulz sees the SPD in the opposition only.
Party Vice Ralf Stegner agreed with this statement.
He said: “The starting position for the SPD has not changed. We have no mandate for a renewed grand coalition.”
2. Minority government
As it stands 29 seats are missing for a possible coalition of CDU / CSU and FDP majority in the Bundestag.
Black and yellow would therefore have to hope for support from the other political groups.
The same goes for black and green; 42 seats are missing for a majority. Such a solution is therefore extremely unlikely.
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) is not considered a friend of changing and uncertain majorities. In addition, a minority government has never existed after a general election.
3. New election
New elections would be complicated – because of the German Constitution. First of all, the chancellor must be elected.
The Federal President proposes a candidate for this office. This person becomes head of government if more than half of the members of the Bundestag vote for them. So far, all chancellors of the Federal Republic were elected in the first ballot.
If the proposal of the Federal President does not have a majority, the second election phase begins. The Bundestag now has two weeks to get a Chancellor with an absolute majority.
The number of ballots is not limited, nor is the number of candidates. So the Bundestag is free to let the two weeks pass – or to try to vote for about fifteen times.
If there is no majority in these two weeks, the third election phase begins. In this last ballot, a relative majority is enough.
Thus, whoever wins the most votes of all candidates is elected. In this case, the Federal President may appoint the person as chancellor of a minority government – but he may also dissolve the Bundestag. Within 60 days there must then be new elections.