In a leaked secret report, seen by the German weekly newspaper Der Spiegel, the Bundeswher played out six potential scenarios by mapping how social trends and international conflicts could affect German security in an “increasingly disorderly” world.
The 102-page report called ‘Strategic Forecast 2040’ was published by the Ministry of Defence in February but was kept hidden.
In one of the scenarios, ‘The Collapse of the European Union and Germany in Reactive Mode’, the report describes a world where EU expansion has been dropped as disillusioned countries leave the bloc.
The report states: “The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflictual world has dramatically changed the security policy environment for Germany and Europe.”
Another scenario, dubbed ‘West against East’, sees some of the central and east European countries breaking away from the EU and forming their own “Eastern bloc,” presumably believing the influence of Russia on these countries could grow.
In the fourth (“multipolar competition”) extremism is on the rise and there are EU partners who “even occasionally seem to seek a specific approach to Russia’s ‘state capitalist model’”.
Other scenarios envisaged European countries embracing “state capitalism” and a halt to globalisation.
German troops were seen emerging from tanks during a simulated attack during military exercises near Munster, Germany. The exercises, dubbed “Operation Allied Powers”, involve an infantry tank battalion, air support and artillery, and were part of exercises that have been taking place since September.
A spokesman for the German Defence Ministry said the study made “robust predictions” but did not attach any probability of the likelihood that they would be realised.
He declined to comment on content of the report, saying it was confidential.
The report is in stark contrast to the recent moves by some European heads to drive towards greater EU integration, including the possibility of establishing a European-wide army.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has also said that a joint military force would add “additional weight to the European foreign and security policy”.
Both the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, the French President, have both called for greater integration across the eurozone.
In August this year the pair called for a “revamp” of the area and called for a single Finance Minister to oversee economic policy across its members.
Mrs Merkel said the new “economics and finance minister” role could provide “greater coherence”.
She also backed a plan for a European Monetary Fund that would redistribute money within the bloc to where it was needed.
Mrs Merkel said: “It could make us even more stable and allow us to show the world that we have all the mechanisms in our own portfolio of the euro zone to be able to react well to unexpected situations.”