They would maintain power by joining forces in a coalition but poll just 47,9 per cent, a GESOP poll for respected Catalan daily El Periodico has shown.
The survey of voting intentions will add fuel to the Spanish government’s argument that Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and his coalition partners have prioritised the will of a minority sector of the troubled region’s inhabitants and broken the law to try to force through independence.
Madrid, which on Saturday confirmed it was imposing direct rule on Catalonia, fears Puigdemont may declare unilateral independence later this week at a plenary session of the region’s Parliament.
The GESOP poll was carried out before the Spanish government announced its intention to take back control of Catalonia and call elections in the next six months by invoking the Spanish constitution’s controversial Article 155.
But it was conducted after the leaders of two grassroots pro-independence movements were jailed by a Madrid-based court investigating them on suspicion of sedition and a controversial – and illegal – referendum on October 1 marred by police violence.
The publication of the poll results also coincided with Mr Puigdemont ally Jordi Turull’s admission elections, which Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy wants the Catalan government to call instead of him, were not “on the table” at the moment. El Periodico, revealing the poll results, said: “The independence movement wins but it doesn’t grow.”
It flagged up GESOP’s sounding revealing that pro-independence MPs would win between 70 and 73 seats, around the same as their current number of 72 – and at 47,9 per cent of the vote just a shade more than the 47,8 per cent they obtained in Catalan elections two years ago.
Catalan leaders were meeting this morning/yesterday morning (MON) to decide the date of their next Parliamentary plenary session, which is expected to take place on Friday.
Puigdemont’s most radical pro-independence partners, like the minority far-left CUP party, want him to use the session to declare Catalonia is going it alone immediately.
Most neutral observers are ruling out a unilateral declaration of independence following his fudge earlier this month when he appeared to declare independence and then suspend it for talks, partly because of the threat of arrest for subversion hanging over his head if he does announce Catalonia is going it alone immediately.
Madrid is expected to take control of key areas including Catalonia’s policing and finances under the Article 155 plans. Josep Lluis Trapero, head of the Mossos d’Esquadra regional police force who is facing a criminal probe for alleged sedition and has lost the support of Spain’s national police forces, is expected to be removed.
Over the weekend Spain’s Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis inflamed tensions between Madrid and Catalonia by claiming some videos showing police violence during the October 1 Catalona referendum were “fake news”.
Voter Marta Torrecillas complained police had broken all her fingers and sexually assaulted her “while they laughed” at one polling station, although she later admitted she only had swelling in a finger or two.
Catalan government spokesman Jordi Turull branded the Spanish government’s decision to impose direct control on the region as a “fully-fledged coup against Catalan institutions.”
Madrid politicians responded by saying Catalan leaders were the ones who had carried out the coup.