Mount Agung has been under the highest alert level for a month and an estimated 180,000 people have evacuated from the area surrounding the volcano.
Bali evacuees have been living in fear since the alert issued on September 22, but Mount Agung finally showed signs of stabilisation over the weekend.
The graph below shows that the Bali volcano was struck by less than 200 earthquakes yesterday, compared to more than 1,000 on Friday (October 20) and more than 900 on Saturday (October 21).
Between the hours of midnight and 6am this morning Agung was hit by just 47 quakes – significantly fewer than what volcanologist have come to expect in recent weeks.
But Bali’s Disaster Mitigation Agency (PVMBG) has warned that the drop in activity does not mean the danger has passed.
“Although the activity has declined, it [seismicity] remained high,” Kasbani, head of the PVMBG, told Indonesia’s Antara News.
Plumes of white steam were observed rising between 100 and 500 metres above the volcano today and major structural changes have been observed at the peak.
Cracks have been spotted forming at Mount Agung’s crater and the top of the volcano has reportedly inflated due to magma forcing its way towards the surface.
Bali officials have not reduced the volcano warning because seismic fluctuations have preceded an eruption in the past.
In 2013, Mount Sinabung erupted after its alert status was reduced to level three, according to Kasbani.
It is estimated that about 180,000 people have been evacuated from their homes to escape being caught up in a possible eruption at Mount Agung.
Official estimates suggest that just under 150,000 people have moved to evacuation camps, with another 30,000 staying with friends or family on the island.
Mount Agung has not erupted since 1963, when a series of eruptions killed more than 1,100 people and injured about 300 more.
Bali Governor Made Mangku Pastika believes Bali’s swift evacuation process this time around means there will be no deaths if Agung erupts again.
“If something happened, even if an eruption happened today, I guarantee there will be no victims,” he said earlier this month.
A state of emergency was enforced in Bali on September 29 and, after being extended twice, is due to be lifted on October 26.