As Eastern Europe pushes back against French President Emmanuel Macron’s plans for a more integrated European Union, many fear another Brexit-like fracture in the EU’s Visegrad area.
Anti-Europe sentiment is spreading across the group after controversial dictats on refugee quotas are forced upon eastern states against their will from western leaders including Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron.
Populist billionaire Andrej Babis, often compared to US President Donald Trump, looks set to storm this month’s Czech Republic election.
He is completely opposed to further EU integration and wants to send Arab immigrants back home.
Only a third of Czechs say being in the EU is “a good thing” according to recent Eurobarometer surveys.
In Poland, leader of the ruling party Kaczynski is a fierce critic of Angela Merkel, especially where immigration is concerned.
He has also made calls for more powers to be returned from Brussels.
And in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is also fighting integration and immigration.
He is runaway favourite to win his third term in the April 2018 elections.
Mr Orban has locked horns with the EU for years over what Brussels sees as disrespect for democratic freedoms.
Together with Mr Babis he said Brussels was wrong to demand solidarity among EU states over issues such as a mandatory immigrant quota.
Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait said the Catalonia crisis, which has seen independence campaigners attack the EU for ignoring their plight, may only be the beginning.
A Brexit-like rupture in Europe’s East could be waiting in the wings, “driven by a similar mixture of pent-up anger and short-term political manoeuvring”, Mr Micklethwait said.
And the likely reelection of Mr Babis will encourage Mr Orbán in Hungary and Mr Kaczyńsk in Poland to continue with their firebrand anti-EU rhetoric, he said.
He added: “This brings home the basic fact about all three populists: They’re popular.
“Macron wants to push ahead with efforts to integrate the EU, centring on the euro zone, which will enrage the eastern countries that are outside the currency union.
“The chances are that Europe won’t undergo another great division. But that was also the probability when Cameron called his referendum. In Europe at the moment it is foolish for businesspeople to ignore the possibilities—and in this case, they’re frightening.”