As tension between Catalonia and the central government in Madrid rises, Dr Jones said President Rajoy could pre-emptively “suspend regional powers” before independence is declared.
The Nottingham Trent professor said: “The response from Madrid will be to continue to insist that the referendum is illegal and the government may even pre-empt any attempt by the Catalan parliament to ratify the vote by utilising article 155 of the Spanish constitution to suspend the regional powers granted to Catalonia, reverting all decision making to the central government in Madrid.
“Neither side seems willing to return to the negotiating table, and Prime Minister Rajoy’s Partido Popular has, in the past, demonstrated little inclination to negotiate with any of the regions regarding constitutional reform.”
Dr Jones said King Felipe‘s speech did not bode well for Spain as he failed to say whether the Government will resume political dialogue with the region.
He said that, while Madrid has the constitution on its side, the violent crackdown on Catalans during the referendum has helped the pro-independence parties to gain support.
He continued: “King Felipe notably omitted any reference to dialogue between the two sides, thus suggesting that the Spanish government will continue to pursue its approach of no dialogue with pro-independence groups in Cataluña.
“The central government in Madrid has the law on its side, as well as the support of the majority of Spaniards outside Catalonia, as well as many Catalans, but its authoritarian approach towards Catalonia, combined with its decision to send in the Guardia Civil and the subsequent violence, has played into the hands of the pro-independence parties and the pro-independence movement, increasing support for secessionism.
“The current impasse is likely to continue and is likely to require mediation from the EU, which has been reluctant to get involved with what many other governments have viewed as a domestic issue up until this point.
“This divisive issue requires a diplomatic solution, but it is very unclear whether the political elites in Spain have the inclination to deliver one.”
The European Union has issued half-hearted condemnations of the violent scenes which saw Spanish police attack Catalonians attempting to vote in Sunday’s referendum.
And with Brussels ignoring calls to mediate the situation, which has seen thousands of people protest against police brutality, Catalan officials have now hit out the bloc over its cowardly silence.
Frustration is growing in Catalonia about the EU’s lack of response, with Catalan president Carles Puigdemont appealing for assistance.
He said: “There is no push button for independence, it does not exist. It is not a domestic matter. It is obvious we need mediation.
“We do not want a traumatic break. We want a new understanding with the Spanish state.”
Just under 92 per of those who voted chose independence for Catalonia from Spain. Amid chaotic scenes, turnout was 43 per cent.