What is Putin REALLY thinking? The disturbing rationale behind shock Russia missile launch

Russia’s successful RS-12M Topol missile launch shocked the world, with experts concerned at what this means for the Kremlin’s already-erratic foreign policy. 

The missile launch, which took place in the south-western Russian region of Astrakhan, comes after weeks of rising tension due to controversial military drills in Europe. 

The Zapad drills were condemned by foreign leaders who were concerned the exercises, held with thousands of troops in Belarus, were preparations for an invasion – or were at the very least a purposeful and serious provocation.

Observers believe Russia’s actions this month are an attempt by leader Vladimir Putin to stamp his authority on the world – all while the West battles chaos on several fronts, especially in North Korea. 

The Chatham House think tank claimed the Zapad drills, which have been quickly followed by more exercises including yesterday’s ICMB launch, display Russia’s motives. 

They said it showed Russia was testing out its rivals’ composure and patience, as well as practicing terrifying war scenarios involving NATO troops in the event of a hypothetic conflict. 

Chatham House said the recent drills “looked like a dress rehearsal for defending against a NATO intervention” – adding particular emphasis was being put on the element of surprise, such as with yesterday’s shock missile launch. 

The group said: “Proving the West wrong is increasingly part of the Kremlin’s political strategy which, in turn, strengthens Russia’s sense of superiority.”

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Mr Putin has spent 2017 flexing his military muscles, attempting to show any rivals, whether in Washington or at NATO, Russia was a powerful enemy to be avoided at all cost. 

The report continued: “Deterrence is one thing, but if you can prove to your enemy that their incursion will result in a catastrophe, you create insecurity among your opponents – and your neighbours.

“Russia is not only reacting to a perceived threat with these drills but is also able to repel conventional Western and NATO forces. 

“Simply put, it is a test-run for Russia’s strategic deterrence and coercive capabilities.”

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More worrying is how Russia is using the escalating chaos in North Korea for their own benefit. 

While relations between Moscow and Pyongyang are now far cooler than they were in decades past, Mr Putin is still keenly aware of the importance North Korea holds as a pawn in his foreign policy. 

With America increasing its presence in South Korea, Russia regularly feign fury before using such developments as excuses for rapidly escalating their own military might. 

Earlier this month Russia referenced this explicitly, setting the tone for the month of military drills and missile tests to follow.

After America announced it was expanding its anti-missile defence system in South Korea, the Kremlin responded angrily and claimed it had no choice but to respond in similar style. 

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “It inevitably will raise the question about our reaction, about our military balances.”

This deadly game of tit-and-tat shows the terrifying motives behind yesterday’s missile launch: while the West scrambles to put out a growing fire in North Korea, Mr Putin is quietly using the crisis to start one of his own on the edge of Europe.