Ordinarily you would think a World Cup qualifying campaign that has featured just two defeats in 17 matches would be considered a success. But when such a campaign has yet to achieve its ultimate aim, you can understand why the Socceroos’ bandwagon remains parked in the side street.
Anti-climactically, tonight’s final group B qualifier, against Thailand at Melbourne’s Aami Park, is not likely to set that bandwagon rolling. Given that second-placed Saudi Arabia, who have a +2 better goal difference than the Socceroos, play group-winners Japan in the early hours of Wednesday morning in Jeddah, Australia will need to win, and win by a significant margin, to ensure there is more dancing than restless shuffling in the aisles in the moments after the full-time whistle.
A Saudi Arabia win could out-trump an Australian one. If it did, it would toss the Socceroos back into the maelstrom of sudden-death play-offs – a stomach-flipping, nightmarish place (exhibit A: Australia v Iran, MCG, 1997) Australian football hoped it would never have to revisit after leaving Oceania for the direct-qualification route offered by Asia. On this occasion likely play-off opponents for Australia or Saudi Arabia include Syria or Uzbekistan and, if they were overcome, the US, Panama or Honduras. Banana skins, the lot of them.
For the past two World Cups, of course, Australia have qualified directly through Asia and perhaps there was some complacency – though not from the players, captain Mark Milligan said this week – that they would do so again this time, especially after Ange Postecoglou’s reign as coach started with the Socceroos’ promising (if ultimately pointless) performance in the 2014 World Cup, before it burst into bloom at the 2015 Asian Cup.
But as the Socceroos’ Russia campaign has shown – besides the fact that we don’t allow national football coaches any time for laurel-resting (which could partly explain Postecoglou’s default demeanour, which is that of a man permanently backed into a corner) – the Asian confederation is no cakewalk.
And that’s especially true for a team which, despite such past efforts and the aspirations of their coach, is made up fringe players on the world scene. And some are barely that – a sign of the skinniness of Australian football’s playing stocks at the moment.
“A man’s reach should exceed his grasp,” poet Robert Browning once penned, and that’s a philosophy with which Postecoglou seems to abide. You would think that would be a good thing but as much as Postecoglou has attracted admiration for his intent to instil in his teams an attacking, possession-based philosophy, questions have been asked as to whether his players have the technical ability to execute it under pressure.
Certainly there have been worrying signs in the long road to Russia.
Though the Socceroos have lost just two games in qualification – against Jordan in Amman in October 2015, and last week against Japan in Saitama – it’s the four draws in the second round of qualifying that have left them on this knife edge and exposed the team’s weaknesses. Three have proven particularly costly. In Jeddah, in October 2016, the Socceroos conceded a 79th-minute equaliser against Saudi Arabia. A month later it took two Mile Jedinak penalties to secure a point against Thailand in Bangkok. Then, in March, Australia got wobbly-legged down the stretch and allowed Iraq a 76th-minute equaliser in Tehran.
The Socceroos were not at their best in losing 2-0 to Japan last week. They looked slow and nervy and they allowed Japan a gift of an opener – for which left-back Brad Smith was culpable. He may find himself on the bench tonight.
On top of that they lacked sharpness in attack – a situation exacerbated by an out-of-sorts game from Tom Rogic as well as the late withdrawal of Aaron Mooy and an illness to Tomi Juric, which left Robbie Kruse leading the line. When the Socceroos did attack, they did so without throwing too many numbers forward. As the game wears on in Melbourne such caution will have to go out the window.
The Socceroos won’t be thinking of the past when they line up against Thailand. There will plenty of time for regrets, if need be, later on. Instead they will have one thought: win, and win well. It could open them up to Thai counter-attacks but the simple objective could prove liberating.
However, it won’t get the band on the wagon just yet. Until Wednesday morning at the earliest, the trombonists and trumpeters ready to celebrate Australia’s World Cup qualification will have to stand by and practise their “buzzing”. Let’s hope that doesn’t unnerve the Socceroos. To the untrained ear, buzzing quite closely resembles the blowing of raspberries.